Significant decline in Commercial Property transaction

According to a recent article in the Financial Review: transactions are down 9 percent in 2018 due to, primarily, slowing Chinese investment. This is following rising investment since 2010 motivated by cheap and high capital returns; lower expected capital growth due to peaking prices in 2018 and expected adjustment for the next two years.

The correlation of declining investment from China and lower volume in transaction does, however, only paint a partial picture. We have reached a peak in the property cycle and investors are likely to have made appropriate adjustments. The fact we are still seeing solid prices may indicate that demand is still high.